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Our fear of turbulence is both a natural and a disproportionate response to that improbable feat. Our reactions to it are as chaotic and nonlinear as the winds themselves. “It’s easy to run a simulation for a few seconds and make it a little better,” Pettit said. “But if you’re in flight and you’re getting that moderate turbulence for an hour or two, the anxiety builds up. After a while, I’m, like, Turn this airplane around, I want to go home. I don’t need to go to Hawaii anymore.” ♦
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Whatever the case, a wounded ISS will have been fairly rotten luck. Back in 2017, scientists from NASA and a Russian space contractor put the odds of this worst-case scenario at 1 in 121. As of late 2025, NASA told WIRED the risk of debris causing a depressurization event in any six-month period was somewhere between 1 in 36 and 1 in 170.
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