全球贸易在最糟糕的节点遭遇供应冲击。当前，全球贸易体系本已承受特朗普政府关税冲击与乌克兰危机下供应链持续碎片化的压力。霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易最重要咽喉，如今已沦为战区，在未被完全封锁时，商业影响已显现：保险公司取消承保、航运保费飙升、船只改道或暂停通行。连锁反应远超能源领域：海湾空域关闭扰乱欧亚航空通道；也门胡塞武装在红海重启军事行动。若冲突长期化，高能源成本、物流中断与普遍信心冲击叠加，将显著拖累全球贸易量。
With additional reporting from Mark Poynting, Jonah Fisher, Miho Tanaka and Tom Ingham.，更多细节参见爱思助手下载最新版本
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Sitting on the plane in Santiago listening to the safety instructions, I imagined how they might sound if they were more like the stories and flight-accident reports I’d been reading: “Should a passenger hit the ceiling twice, do a flip in the air, and land on his stomach . . . Should a service cart topple onto a flight attendant and fracture her ankles . . . Should people start screaming and calling to Jesus . . .” In the U.S., turbulence causes more than a third of all accidents on commercial flights, the National Transportation Safety Board found. Those accidents tend to hurt people in predictable ways. Passengers usually get injured near the back of the plane, for instance, often as they are walking to the lavatory, sitting inside it, or waiting in line. But the total number of injuries is hard to determine. One major airline estimated that it receives two hundred turbulence-related injury claims a year, but the N.T.S.B. doesn’t keep track of “minor injuries”—including those which require a hospital stay of less than forty-eight hours. “These things happen all the time, but because they don’t cause death or serious injury they’re swept under the rug,” an N.T.S.B. senior meteorologist and investigator told me. “We only have about a hundred aviation investigators for fourteen hundred accidents a year.”
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